Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

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ESauce
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby ESauce » January 17th, 2017, 10:35 am

AtariToday wrote:Boom. (I gotta play devil's advocate here)

Guys. Don't buy into all the negativity. Think back to when the Nintendo Wii was announced and how folks discredited it from the get go. I can remember all the articles announcing it could never compete with the PS3 and Xbox 360. Somehow the system that didn't stand a chance outsold both of those consoles. Sure the Wii didn't get some of the big budget titles but don't forget the experience you received was unique, there were serious exclusive games released for it, and overall..it was fun! The Nintendo Switch is looking to provide a unique experience to the latest Sony, Microsoft, PC options..and let's be a bit honest, we kinda need that at this time. A lot of the current options play relatively the same.

For those focusing on price point, please remember that Nintendo is a video game company. Sony and Microsoft are large conglomerates that bring in a lot of revenue through other means. They can sell you their latest console at a loss. Nintendo does not have that option.



The thing is, even if I can sympathize with the reason it has to be $300 that doesn't make that price any more appealing. If I open a sandwich shop and charge $15 a sandwich because I can't get a good relationship with suppliers as a new business, does my reason the sandwich is $15 matter? No, people will just see a $15 sandwich and not eat at my shop. If Nintendo can't afford to price their console competitively, then the sad fact is, they can't afford to be in the console business any more.

And the difference with the Wii is that non-gamers and casual gamers were excited by that console. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't really see what the Switch has that will appeal to those people.

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AtariToday
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby AtariToday » January 17th, 2017, 6:26 pm

ESauce wrote:
The thing is, even if I can sympathize with the reason it has to be $300 that doesn't make that price any more appealing. If I open a sandwich shop and charge $15 a sandwich because I can't get a good relationship with suppliers as a new business, does my reason the sandwich is $15 matter? No, people will just see a $15 sandwich and not eat at my shop. If Nintendo can't afford to price their console competitively, then the sad fact is, they can't afford to be in the console business any more.

And the difference with the Wii is that non-gamers and casual gamers were excited by that console. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't really see what the Switch has that will appeal to those people.


I kinda get your sandwich analogy, but more so I just find myself really wanting a sandwich. :lol:

I don't completely agree with you on the "price their console competitively" part. How much are the current systems going for that the Switch will be competing against? I think we may be looking at this differently. Some folks think they are getting less (graphics, hard drive size) and as such should be paying less. I think what Nintendo is offering is less about hardware specs and more about providing a fun unique experience. This has the potential to offer that.
I owned an Xbox 360 and truth be told I don't think things have moved forward a whole lot since then. Sure the hard drives are bigger and the graphics are better, but the game shelves are full of more of the same old same old. I'd like to see more innovative titles hit the consoles. I'm hoping the Switch offers me that.

I was a huge supporter of the Dreamcast when it launched. I think if more people gave Sega a chance they wouldn't have fallen into the shape they are now in. If Nintendo fails and as you say, can't afford to be in the console business anymore, I'm going to cry. Straight up. I'm man enough to admit that I will sit on the floor and rock back and forth and cry. Don't you do this to me people!

As far as casual gamer interest. I feel Nintendo knows full well how to market to that audience. The NES classic was all the talk this holiday (some of it negative, but stay with me here..) and they have tons of Intellectual Property that folks know very very well. People who don't play videogames know Mario, Zelda, Pokemon. Nintendo knows how to get the word out one way or another. Final thought - the Nintendo Switch "First Look" video on youtube has about 25 million views on Youtube, and I've seen this thing mentioned heavily on the late night talk shows (Jimmy Fallon!). I'm pretty sure the casual gamer is going to give this thing a serious look.

MrLuck87
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby MrLuck87 » January 17th, 2017, 6:56 pm

ESauce wrote:And the difference with the Wii is that non-gamers and casual gamers were excited by that console. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't really see what the Switch has that will appeal to those people.


Exactly. I still remember 2006 pretty well. Most people were actually really excited for the Wii. Wii Sports was mind blowing at the time and people were interested in the motion controlled version of Zelda. "Hardcore gamers" would take Wii Sports over to friends and families houses and suddenly everyone wanted one. Even if the Switch came bundled with 1,2 Switch there is just no freaking way that game is going to have the same mass appeal that Wii Sports did. I still think Nintendo probably should have bundled it with a new version of Wii Sports or maybe Mario Kart 8.

As a Wii U owner who has no interest in portable gaming it feels like Nintendo is basically just wanting me to spend another $500+ for a system I already own. They couldn't even manage to lure many of us in with nostalgia by finally giving us a new Kid Icarus, Pilotwings, Waverace, Metroid, F-Zero, Rogue Squadron, Excite Bike, etc. Just another Mario, which admitting looks great, but everyone knows a Nintendo system will get Mario eventually. Look forward to having roughly one worthwhile Nintendo exclusive to play every 3 months just like the Wii U.

Oh I also saw this article today. "Don't Expect Borderlands 3 on Nintendo Switch, Gearbox CEO Says"

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/dont-e ... 0-6446971/

ESauce
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby ESauce » January 18th, 2017, 12:08 am

AtariToday wrote:
ESauce wrote:
The thing is, even if I can sympathize with the reason it has to be $300 that doesn't make that price any more appealing. If I open a sandwich shop and charge $15 a sandwich because I can't get a good relationship with suppliers as a new business, does my reason the sandwich is $15 matter? No, people will just see a $15 sandwich and not eat at my shop. If Nintendo can't afford to price their console competitively, then the sad fact is, they can't afford to be in the console business any more.

And the difference with the Wii is that non-gamers and casual gamers were excited by that console. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't really see what the Switch has that will appeal to those people.


I kinda get your sandwich analogy, but more so I just find myself really wanting a sandwich. :lol:

I was a huge supporter of the Dreamcast when it launched. I think if more people gave Sega a chance they wouldn't have fallen into the shape they are now in. If Nintendo fails and as you say, can't afford to be in the console business anymore, I'm going to cry. Straight up. I'm man enough to admit that I will sit on the floor and rock back and forth and cry. Don't you do this to me people!



No judgement here. I might cry too. I love Nintendo and don't wish them failure, but I don't have a lot of confidence the Switch will be successful. I'm not saying I couldn't be wrong, or they can't turn it around if I'm right though. I just hope your Dreamcast analogy isn't foreshadowing.

BlasteroidAli
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby BlasteroidAli » January 18th, 2017, 5:05 am

I am sitting on the fence on this one. Though I think no Space Duel as a launch title might harms its prospects with the retro crowd...

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Rookie1
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby Rookie1 » January 18th, 2017, 6:47 am

Im not upset about the price of the console itself, or even the game lineup. Its the fact that it is just another under powered gimmick box.

At this point in time, Nintendo's first party titles arent enough to carry it on their own. 3rd party support needs to be there. It really does, especially when next gen consoles are cheaper than the Switch right now. When I see the new Red Dead, or Final Fantasy, or GTA, or Madden, or Star Wars Knights of the Old Republic, and then I see none of that is going to come out on the Switch, why would I invest hundreds of dollars in to it? Because Zelda? I can buy a used WiiU for less than half the price of the Switch and score Zelda for that thing. And despite what people say, I bet a million dollars it runs just fine on the WiiU.

And for those that say Nintendo has never been about power, thats garbage, werent we "playing with power?". Up to, and including the GameCube, Nintendo had the most powerful consoles. They shot themselves in the foot with the storage medium they used, but all of their consoles were more powerful than anything else out there. The Wii was a fluke, and the worst fluke that could have ever happened to Nintendo. Because of its surprised success, they think they can just keep pumping out under powered motion nonsense and that people will buy it just because. Its silly. Its a different market than 2006, and even Sony and Microsoft are acknowledging that.

You can be different, but still cater to the 100+ million people that picked up a PS4 and Xbone. Imagine if Nintendo did their own thing with this, but made it as powerful as the new Scorpio or PS4 Pro, and released it at say $350 without the joycon crap, and didnt play the artificial shortage game and released it last November. I bet they would be 50 million sales deep right now.

I just see Nintendo as someone that never learns from their mistakes and throws public opinion to the wind. You can still be a trend setter without being stupid about it. Just give people what they want instead of what you think they should want. Ofcourse the Nintendo fan boys will keep this afloat initially, but the general public is still scratching their heads with it, if they even know it exists. For anyone that isnt an internet junky, they have probably never heard of the Switch. There is ZERO advertising for it, and it comes out in less than 2 months. Hell, it comes out in less than 2 months and we still dont even know anything about the specs.

If this came out instead of the WiiU, I would say success story here. But right now, I see this thing as DOA.

BanjoPickles
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby BanjoPickles » January 20th, 2017, 10:16 am

My initial excitement has worn off, and I've taken a more critical look at the Switch. Honestly, I don't think that this system can do anything but land with a resounding thud, for a number of reasons:

1). The price tag itself doesn't bother me. $300 does seem to be an industry standard. In fact, I thought the anticipation of a $250 price point was unrealistic. What does bother me, though, is the fact that they're doing the same thing that they did with the Wii U. Whereas the PS3/4 and Xbox 360/One equipped their consoles with 500GB, or more, Nintendo is sticking to 32GB! Considering that you can buy a 500GB PS4 for $300, oftentimes with a game, the price of the Switch does seem a bit ridiculous.

2). Speaking of games, the lack of a pack-in does seem like a very stupid decision on their part. Even dumber is pricing 1, 2-Switch at $50, when it had "this is a tech-demo pack-in" written all over it! If they're expecting that game, fun as it may end up being, to sell like gangbusters....I just don't see that happening.

3). The games. Nintendo has been relatively quiet for the past couple of years, leading many (myself included) to believe that the time was spent creating a flood of games to sell their future on. So far, from what has been shown, I feel like I was wrong in my assumption. They DID show off some games that looked fun, compelling, and made good use of the hardware (Arms actually looks like a lot of fun), but they really needed to knock this one out of the park! Honestly, I get the feeling that this launch is going to be even worse than that of the Wii U's! "It's launching with Zelda, though!" Yeah, on the same day that the same exact game launches on the Wii U! Oh, and if you wait six more weeks (!), you can pick up a deluxe edition of Mario Kart 8! Oh, and if you wait for several weeks after that, you can pick up Splatoon 2, which looks more like an expansion than a full-fledged sequel! So, what you're basically getting, until late summer (at the earliest), are three expanded Wii U games.

4). Paid online subscriptions. This doesn't bother me as much as it has some others, but there are issues that I do have. Though this has become the industry standard, PS and MS provide real incentives via a flood of free software. Nintendo offering one free NES/SNES per month, only for that month, seems absolutely ridiculous at best, and cheap at worst. Also, PS and MS provide a robust online experience, and Nintendo has always been rather conservative when it comes to providing a true online experience. Also, the ball is in their court with the virtual console. There is no reason why they couldn't have put Gamecube VC on the Wii U, save for the lack of a true analog shoulder button, and I get this feeling that they are going to ignore the Gamecube once again.

5). The ridiculous price of their accessories. The price for that pro controller is beyond arrogant! It's a sharp controller, but I seriously doubt that it is of a higher quality than the dualshock 4 or the XBO controller, which retails for, what, $30 less? The fact that you have to pay an additional $30 for a charging cradle, $80 for a set of joy-cons, and suddenly that $300 ripoff becomes a $400+ ripoff. Add in a couple of games and you are close to the $500 mark! Right now, for a point of reference, I can go into a store, buy a 500GB Xbox One bundle that comes with everything that I need, oftentimes with a game or three, for $250-350! How can Nintendo compete with that? "They're not competing with MS and PS!" Apparently not, but they SHOULD be competing for my hard-earned money, and yours, and theirs! So far, they're not doing anything that is convincing me that the Switch is a better experience than that provided on the PS4 or XBO.

6). Third-party developers. Remember, back in 2012, when you had all of these major developers come out in droves and say "yeah, that AAA game is not going to be coming to the Wii U?" Welp, it's happening again. Borderlands 3? Nope. Red Dead 2? Not a chance. UbiSoft is mainly releasing games from last generation. EA has pledged support with one game. You had several developers who appeared at the conference who basically said "it's a cool system. We love the concept....and expect many things from us in the future." Do you know what I heard? "If it sells, we'll concoct something but if it doesn't, then best of luck." I'm not seeing that same level of support that would be offered to PS or MS, and that does concern me. That isn't my way of saying "Switch needs the same exact games," but they need something more than what they're getting!

I just don't see this being a success at all. Those who only want Zelda can buy a Wii U, if they haven't already. They seem to be self-sabotaging themselves at every step right now. For the first time ever, I'm really starting to think that Nintendo is irreperably out of touch.

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Atariboy
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby Atariboy » January 21st, 2017, 7:55 am

Well thought out post, Banjo.

I'm hoping they surprise us despite appearances that suggest they're in for another struggle. The last time I had doubts like I do right now, they ultimately surpassed 100 million units sold with the Wii and certainly had a success with it even if it lacked the longevity that the competition had. The doom and gloom I was predicting with such an awful name and their foray into motion gaming that held little interest for me never came to pass.

There were issues, but I ended up enjoying myself so much that I never second guessed myself with the Wii U afterwards and can look at my game shelf right now and see 100 white plastic Wii game cases lined up on them. So while I don't think Sony has much to worry about even with the most optimistic scenarios, I'd love to see Nintendo surprise us yet again and respond with a solid 3rd place performance that guarantees that the Nintendo ecosystem will survive past the next 4 or 5 years.

I'd feel so much better right now though if accessory prices were more realistic, they had released concrete online plans, had provided a clear vision of the 3rd party situation rather than the murky one we have right now that just left behind doubts, and if Super Mario Odyssey was due around June with another AAA Nintendo release slated for Christmas. A successful launch is of little issue since there are enough Nintendo fanatics and videogame nuts that buy on day 1 to all but guarantee a strong performance, but I worry about their momentum going into Christmas.

Will Mario Kart 8 Deluxe in April and Splatoon 2 next summer be enough to tide people over until Super Mario Odyssey this Christmas? I'm not so sure since even Splatoon 2 seems to have felt more like a port to people than a sequel. And the little changed Mario Kart 8 already moved 8 million copies or so to the Nintendo faithful, and those are individuals that will represent a significant slice of the early install base of the Switch.

I just remember how the Wii U enjoyed a solid albeit unspectacular launch, but was written off as a lost cause later that winter just a few weeks later. Momentum matters and can evaporate rapidly if people aren't excited about what's coming in the weeks ahead.

ESauce
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby ESauce » January 21st, 2017, 11:05 am

Atariboy wrote:

Will Mario Kart 8 Deluxe in April and Splatoon 2 next summer be enough to tide people over until Super Mario Odyssey this Christmas? I'm not so sure since even Splatoon 2 seems to have felt more like a port to people than a sequel.


I've read previews of that game that said it felt like a port and not a sequel and all of them say it has new levels and guns, but it feels like a port because the graphics and gameplay are the same. What? That's a sequel. They're describing a sequel.

I've obviously been very critical of Nintendo lately but it seems like journalists are applying a double standard to Nintendo sequels that they don't apply to other franchises. I've been playing Gears 4 and it plays exactly like Gears 1-3 but no reviews said it didn't feel like a sequel because of that. I think because Nintendo usually comes out with a very different vision for the sequels in their franchises, when they come out with a true sequel, like Mario Galaxy 2 or Splatoon 2, people say it feels like an expansion pack, even though 90% of non-Nintendo sequels play just like the prior game in the series.

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Atarifever
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby Atarifever » January 22nd, 2017, 6:53 am

BanjoPickles wrote:3). The games. Nintendo has been relatively quiet for the past couple of years, leading many (myself included) to believe that the time was spent creating a flood of games to sell their future on. So far, from what has been shown, I feel like I was wrong in my assumption. They DID show off some games that looked fun, compelling, and made good use of the hardware (Arms actually looks like a lot of fun), but they really needed to knock this one out of the park! Honestly, I get the feeling that this launch is going to be even worse than that of the Wii U's! "It's launching with Zelda, though!" Yeah, on the same day that the same exact game launches on the Wii U! Oh, and if you wait six more weeks (!), you can pick up a deluxe edition of Mario Kart 8! Oh, and if you wait for several weeks after that, you can pick up Splatoon 2, which looks more like an expansion than a full-fledged sequel! So, what you're basically getting, until late summer (at the earliest), are three expanded Wii U games.

4). Paid online subscriptions. This doesn't bother me as much as it has some others, but there are issues that I do have. Though this has become the industry standard, PS and MS provide real incentives via a flood of free software. Nintendo offering one free NES/SNES per month, only for that month, seems absolutely ridiculous at best, and cheap at worst. Also, PS and MS provide a robust online experience, and Nintendo has always been rather conservative when it comes to providing a true online experience. Also, the ball is in their court with the virtual console. There is no reason why they couldn't have put Gamecube VC on the Wii U, save for the lack of a true analog shoulder button, and I get this feeling that they are going to ignore the Gamecube once again.


6). Third-party developers. Remember, back in 2012, when you had all of these major developers come out in droves and say "yeah, that AAA game is not going to be coming to the Wii U?" Welp, it's happening again. Borderlands 3? Nope. Red Dead 2? Not a chance. UbiSoft is mainly releasing games from last generation. EA has pledged support with one game. You had several developers who appeared at the conference who basically said "it's a cool system. We love the concept....and expect many things from us in the future." Do you know what I heard? "If it sells, we'll concoct something but if it doesn't, then best of luck." I'm not seeing that same level of support that would be offered to PS or MS, and that does concern me. That isn't my way of saying "Switch needs the same exact games," but they need something more than what they're getting!

I just don't see this being a success at all. Those who only want Zelda can buy a Wii U, if they haven't already. They seem to be self-sabotaging themselves at every step right now. For the first time ever, I'm really starting to think that Nintendo is irreperably out of touch.


These points are the reasons why I'm not just out on Switch, I'm out on Nintendo. In particular, the one month rental of a SNES or NES game made me finally say "nope, and screw off you morons." I have PS+ and a PSTV and PS3. The library I have accumulated from that in a little over a year is staggering, and it continues to grow. I am, right now, playing Far Cry Blood Dragon, a big FPS game, that I got that way. I am still getting PS4 games too, without even owning one of those. And Nintendo will RENT me one free 8 or 16 bit game a month?! They have so many many games on just those 2 platforms, they could have the best incentive system. They could easily give 5 or 10 a month to keep, or open access to the VC for those systems. As much worse as this is than PS+ or Xbox Gold, it is frankly insulting to think they expect me to buy it. Are they unaware the other 2 services exist?

As for games, they have burned me too often. The Gamecube had 2 final games yanked (Super Paper Mario and DK Barrell Blast) to be unnecessary Wii games instead, and had its Zelda game delayed for no reason until after it was on Wii first, leaving it with an avoidable empty last year. The Wii, despite being hugely popular (and despite Ubisoft and Activision continuing to support it with at least casual games) was so abandoned after 2011, fans had to start a campaign to beg Nintendo for already localaized games to be offered for sale! And the Wii U has been openly and unashamedly ignored by Nintendo for 2 years despite being practically ONLY owned by their biggest fans.

I don't know what comes after "fool me 3 times" but I'm certainly not making it four. The other two companies treat their fans and customers 100 times better, and I'm done with this out of touch, anti-customer mess of a company.


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