Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

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scotland
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby scotland » January 30th, 2017, 6:35 am

Voor wrote:At least Nintendo is consistent. New system with questionable power, some gimmicks, franchise exclusives, and less 3rd party support "for the whole family".

It's interesting to see how console owners are reacting. But I'm wondering what 3DS owners will do. Will the switch replace their 3DS??


You are right. This is their business model. Don't compete with Sony and MS, but be something different while being something the same. Sometimes that works, like a Big Green Egg has its fanbase in barbecue circles.

As for the 3DS, right now Nintendo of America is *saying* they are different things and the Switch is not a replacement. I think that is probably true for a limited time, say a year or so. Then it will be time to reassess, between console, portable, and mobile sales data and whatever is in their product pipeline.

Herschie
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby Herschie » February 12th, 2017, 12:08 am

My friend had a chance to play the Switch at some expo. He said that it is absolutely fantastic, and he can't wait to get it. So now I'm excited for March, and that's for another reason in addition to MLB The Show.

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VideoGameCritic
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby VideoGameCritic » February 12th, 2017, 11:26 am

Is it still possible to preorder this thing? I can't find any place. I think I missed the boat.

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Rookie1
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby Rookie1 » February 12th, 2017, 2:32 pm

VideoGameCritic wrote:Is it still possible to preorder this thing? I can't find any place. I think I missed the boat.


Sold out in an hour or so. Good luck!

CaptainCruch
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby CaptainCruch » February 14th, 2017, 4:20 am

VideoGameCritic wrote:Is it still possible to preorder this thing? I can't find any place. I think I missed the boat.


I don't know, but I wondered: what games would you pre-order with it? 1-2-Switch doesn't appeal to me at all, so the only games that are interesting to me for pre-order seem Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Super Bomberman R. Or I'm missing something? (Snipperclips seems interesting too, but I believe that's not a launch game).

eneuman96
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby eneuman96 » February 15th, 2017, 2:00 pm

CaptainCruch wrote:
VideoGameCritic wrote:Is it still possible to preorder this thing? I can't find any place. I think I missed the boat.


I don't know, but I wondered: what games would you pre-order with it? 1-2-Switch doesn't appeal to me at all, so the only games that are interesting to me for pre-order seem Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Super Bomberman R. Or I'm missing something? (Snipperclips seems interesting too, but I believe that's not a launch game).


Binding of Isaac: Afterbirth is also an amazing game and will be a launch title for the Switch. It's not exclusive to the system, but the Switch version is the only physical edition of the game and it comes with all the DLC from the other versions already included.

BanjoPickles
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby BanjoPickles » February 15th, 2017, 11:47 pm

eneuman96 wrote:
CaptainCruch wrote:
VideoGameCritic wrote:Is it still possible to preorder this thing? I can't find any place. I think I missed the boat.


I don't know, but I wondered: what games would you pre-order with it? 1-2-Switch doesn't appeal to me at all, so the only games that are interesting to me for pre-order seem Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Super Bomberman R. Or I'm missing something? (Snipperclips seems interesting too, but I believe that's not a launch game).


Binding of Isaac: Afterbirth is also an amazing game and will be a launch title for the Switch. It's not exclusive to the system, but the Switch version is the only physical edition of the game and it comes with all the DLC from the other versions already included.


That is one of the biggest issues that I have with the Switch, and it worries me: the Switch, so far, doesn't seem to have much of an identity. Much of the launch window library consists of games that have appeared on multiple platforms, over the past couple of years. Heck, even the game that should be the "killer app" is just a souped up port of a Wii U game! Binding of Isaac, 1,001 Spikes, Rayman Legend, Just Dance 2017, Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8, Shovel Knight, Skyrim (a game that, considering its age, should be a launch title but isn't even due for release until the Fall!)----who is this system aimed for? The Nintendo faithful? You mean the people who bought the Wii U, who can own the two biggest post-launch Switch games on the Wii U? The PS4/XBone crowd? That isn't happening, and why would they think that they can hit one out of the park by pricing the Switch HIGHER than the competition? So many people have thrived on the "gameplay over graphics" mantra since the launch of the Wii, and that's all well and good but you're talking about a company that has a lot to prove, going up against two mid-generation consoles that have already had the past three-and-a-half years to build their respective libraries. Even as a Nintendo fan, it would be hard for me to justify the purchase of a 32GB Switch for $300+ when I can get a 500GB PS4, bundled with a game/games, for the same price! Are they banking on the college crowd with games like 1-2, Switch, or are they hoping that the parents out there will be willing to drop nearly $500 on the console, game, and additional joy cons?

Am I the only one who sees nothing but mistakes? I'm sincerely hoping that I'm proven wrong, but I haven't seen anything, save for the cool concept of hybrid gaming, that seems to have been done right!

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scotland
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby scotland » February 27th, 2017, 1:16 pm

http://www.polygon.com/2017/2/27/14726344/what-the-game-industry-thinks-of-nintendo-switch

Polygon article interviewing a lot of people, including some well known people in the past.

One thing I came away with is 'What does success look like for the Switch?"
Is 20 million units sold a success?

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Atarifever
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby Atarifever » February 27th, 2017, 4:53 pm

scotland wrote:
One thing I came away with is 'What does success look like for the Switch?"
Is 20 million units sold a success?


I'm wondering the same thing. The Gamecube was a modest success at 21 million. The estimate I remember seeing consistently at the time was that it made a billion dollars profit over 5 years. In the same generation, Microsoft lost $4 billion to sell 5 million more units. Given that the Gamecube followed higher sales on the N64, it was still considered something of a failure, despite good profits and lots of third party games.

I wonder if getting back up to 20 million from the 13.5 million or whatever Wii Us will be considered a success if a similar amount of profit is made to the Gamecube. Surely $1 billion in profit over 5 years on 20 million systems, beats a few losses and less than 14 million units sold. However, durng the GC era, Nintendo had a handheld system to help make major profits and to remain relevant. The Switch basically replaces their handheld.

Still, with mobile games on their spreadsheet too, and even whatever 3DS sales and games are left until 2018 or so, AND 20 million sales of Switch , I'm sure it would let them stay in business.

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scotland
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Re: Nintendo Switch: Boom or Bust?

Postby scotland » February 27th, 2017, 6:31 pm

Atarifever wrote: The Gamecube was a modest success at 21 million. The estimate I remember seeing consistently at the time was that it made a billion dollars profit over 5 years. I wonder if getting back up to 20 million from the 13.5 million or whatever Wii Us will be considered a success if a similar amount of profit is made to the Gamecube. ...However, durng the GC era, Nintendo had a handheld system to help make major profits and to remain relevant. The Switch basically replaces their handheld. Still, with mobile games on their spreadsheet too, and even whatever 3DS sales and games are left until 2018 or so, AND 20 million sales of Switch , I'm sure it would let them stay in business.


That's good information on the Gamecube, my friend. It puts it into perspective that Nintendo hardware makes money for them, although its at the expense of a larger install base if it was cheaper.

I am unsure what the future of Nintendo handhelds are. The reports I've seen say a game like Zelda gives it about a 3 hour battery life (that's probably dependent on screen brightness and other things). Its not currently being pitched as a handheld, but as a console you can take on the go. We'll see. The Switch seems a bit big for a portable to me, but for in house/in hotel room off-tv gaming, it would be great...except its competing with tablets. I'll be in the market for a new tablet soon, but the Switch needs to have a browser, and some apps like an e-book reader.

I think both mobile and amiibos will help the balance sheet too. Even though they did not make Pokemon Go, I think they are still benefiting directly and by the boost to the Pokemon brand. Super Mario Run, even though investors were disappointed, has done pretty well also, and it shows Nintendo was willing to put Mario on mobile, not just 2nd tier characters. So, I think I'm rather bullish on Nintendo and mobile games going forward. They may not hit it out of the park, but I think they are making money.

I don't follow the nfd amiibo market much, but it wasn't that long ago when they were in the news alot. Plus, we had reports of Nintendo looking for partners to make movies, such as a live action Zelda movie. Put it all together, and each part feeds off the other with the Switch being the common ground.

20 million is not a far fetched number for Nintendo. If that's success, then its good to keep that in mind.


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