Console Future Values

Reserved for classic gaming discussions.
jon
Posts: 547
Joined: April 9th, 2015, 4:30 pm

Console Future Values

Postby jon » February 10th, 2020, 8:55 pm

I've always wanted a Jag CD and am going to pull the trigger. That's for personal enjoyment purposes. I was wondering if there are any consoles that might experience a huge jump in value in the next 10 years. I'm thinking the Jag CD will be one.

User avatar
Stalvern
Posts: 1133
Joined: June 18th, 2016, 7:15 pm

Re: Console Future Values

Postby Stalvern » February 10th, 2020, 9:52 pm

Good luck finding one that works.

User avatar
Retro STrife
Posts: 1376
Joined: August 3rd, 2015, 7:40 pm

Re: Console Future Values

Postby Retro STrife » February 11th, 2020, 1:14 pm

Always tough to predict what consoles or games will see big increases in value. Best predictor is past trends. I don't expect the Jaguar CD to rise any faster than usual. In general, systems from the early to mid 90s have already had their biggest % gains in value.. prices will still rise, but more gradually in the 2020s than they did in the 2010s. The exception for the Jag CD could be its high failure rate, if it really drives down the supply.

Historically, your best bet is buying systems that have been dead about 5-10 years. That's when they bottom out. Then in the 15-25 years after death, they get renewed interest and the price rises again. So as an example, the Xbox 360/Wii/PS3 generation is currently at its cheapest price point. If you're interested in them, now's the chance to collect. Once they take on their "second life" with retro gamers, their prices will rise again (you're seeing that now with Xbox/PS2/Gamecube). But those systems are all mainstream, so I don't expect them to get crazy expensive. I can't think of a system from after 2000 that might get crazy expensive like the Jaguar CD... Maybe something weird like the Gizmondo.

jon
Posts: 547
Joined: April 9th, 2015, 4:30 pm

Re: Console Future Values

Postby jon » February 11th, 2020, 3:16 pm

Yikes, I'm trembling reading about the possible issues with the Jag CD. I'd heard some rumors before but this really hit home. There's one that has 31 bids (just the CD unit with power supply) so I'm assuming that's a good sign as far as it working because a lot of people are bidding on it. I plan to outbid everyone. But I'll be anything but excited before I try playing a game.

CaptainCruch
Posts: 304
Joined: July 17th, 2015, 11:26 am

Re: Console Future Values

Postby CaptainCruch » February 12th, 2020, 7:42 am

I own a Sega Multi-Mega (EU version of the console that's known as the Sega-CDX is the USA), that's quite valuable. (Unfortunately, the disc-reader of my unit is broken, so I can't use it to play Sega CD games).

User avatar
MSR1701
Posts: 175
Joined: April 29th, 2019, 7:53 am

Re: Console Future Values

Postby MSR1701 » February 12th, 2020, 12:28 pm

Supply and Demand. As the supply of usable units (say, a Jaguar CD) falls, the base value of the unit will go up. As collectors vie to collect, that will also raise the value, as will the owner's value (if they see it as not something to part with vs something to hold for a period to sell).

The sad truth about many of these older game systems is that as time goes on, the older tech will fail, be it from simple age, poor storing, over use, poor design, or any of a dozen other reasons. Sadly, while many of the games for systems like the Jaugar/CD and other systems from the period are archived in digital form (ROMs, ISOs, etc.), the hardware/software to run the less mainstream platforms is severely lacking, and no company is currently making anything that can run these games. Many of the "Mini" consoles are emulator-based (see @Games), with little or no actual hardware based on the original unit.

User avatar
VideoGameCritic
Site Admin
Posts: 13167
Joined: April 1st, 2015, 7:23 pm

Re: Console Future Values

Postby VideoGameCritic » February 12th, 2020, 5:53 pm

At first I thought spending a few hundred bucks for a Jag CD seemed excessive, but looking back I'm pretty sure I paid $199 for mine in the late 90's. The difference is, it was new.

User avatar
MSR1701
Posts: 175
Joined: April 29th, 2019, 7:53 am

Re: Console Future Values

Postby MSR1701 » February 13th, 2020, 3:46 pm

VideoGameCritic wrote:At first I thought spending a few hundred bucks for a Jag CD seemed excessive, but looking back I'm pretty sure I paid $199 for mine in the late 90's. The difference is, it was new.


I do wish I was old enough and had the funds back then to get an Amiga CD32 and Jaguar + CD. I did think both were more interesting than the 3DO, CD-I and even the Playstation and Saturn for a time.

ThePixelatedGenocide
Posts: 343
Joined: April 29th, 2015, 9:06 pm

Re: Console Future Values

Postby ThePixelatedGenocide » February 13th, 2020, 4:48 pm

Real talk?

Buy a New 3DS XL (or twenty) while they're still cheap. They're both high quality in terms of the unique experience they offer, and a ridiculously fragile beast that's somehow also a Nintendo portable.

People are going to drop lots of them. And families aren't exactly saving them in the original boxes.

Eventually, one way or another, some rich Nintendo fan with more money than sense is probably going to want a brand new one. Why leave your retirement completely to chance? (Note: I am clearly not a financial advisor. A real financial advisor would be arrested for even seriously considering this question.)

Beyond that, it's impossible to predict the future based on the past.

The Wii U and Vita both are consoles that had passionate fanbases, and stronger support than you'd expect from failed platforms. In the past, that'd be a great sign that prices were likely to go insane. And forward thinking collectors are already beginning to circle the waters, so if you want to build up a decent library of physical copies? Act now.

But when looking at the Vita library, there's already an obscene amount of rare collector's games. It's kind of like the 90's comic book market, in that it's trying to game the collector's market before anyone knows for certain whether or not there's even going to be a collector's market.

Digital storage is further complicating matters; even those who don't like emulators are way more forgiving of flash carts and built-in hard drives. And then there's the ever changing nature of gaming itself. Back in the good old days, a solid action game lasted you about an hour or less. Today, people complain about the length of games if the single player campaign is under 7 hours.

And then there's the growing understanding of design fundamentals. In the past, a game as polished as Streetfighter II or Super Metroid simply won their category for the entire year, and the next. Now? A polished Metroidvania or 2d Fighting game is just a contender. They're the bare minimum you need to get people to even notice your indie game.

This means that there's way more competition for the dwindling attention span of gamers, all of whom have more options than ever before.

Will there be anything like the retro game collectors of the past, in our future?

Let's return to the Vita, which is considered to have a shallow library by modern standards: only 1576 games, according to Wikipedia. And to demonstrate how much things have changed in a single human generation, let's compare Sonic All Star Racing Transformed vs. Sonic Drift 1&2, Street Racer, and Sonic R and Looney Tunes: Space Race.

One underrated 3rd party game on an abandoned Sony portable vs. the best Mario Kart clone on every other Sega console, combined. How does it stack up?

Right away, none of those games, in their core gameplay loops, are anywhere near as highly regarded as Transformed. Or even RC Pro-Am, for that matter. So that's quality out of the way, right away; if you're a portable gamer, it completely delivers. How about quantity?

According to howlongtocomplete.com, a leisurely completionist run of All-Stars Transformed can easily take ... 100+ hours? Really? o.0 That's got to include a lot of failed races. To be fair, that leisurely completionist might be a frustrated IGN critic struggling with the Vita port's lack of dynamic shadows and bump mapping. The kind of frustrated IGN critic wishing, as he crashes again and again, that he was just playing something a little easier, like Mario Kart 7, instead.

The kind of critic, name omitted, that I'd completely sympathize with, if he'd just admit the game was designed by the kind of sadists who think chaining drift/boost combinations together for the entire length of the Shinobi track belongs in a difficulty setting labeled "easy mode". There is no need to trash what's ultimately a really good console port, just because the game's designer hates you and your aging joint pain.

Needless to say, I have very mixed feelings about this game. And I may personally prefer Mario Kart DS, by a considerable margin.

Fortunately, the average completionist, who doesn't suck as bad as me or a professional IGN critic, only needs roughly 46 hours to completely lay waste to Sumo Digital's challenge. And I am in awe of these people.

But my point is, that's still a really long time for anyone to do a single anything, no matter how good it is. Even if we combine the average completionist times of every other game combined, and ignore how irresponsible it for anyone to label a single completionist run for Sonic Drift 2 as "average", we end up with something like:

Sonic Drift 1's 51 minutes + Sonic Drift 2's 1 hour + Street Racer's 7 hours 52 minutes + Sonic R's 2 hours and 24 minutes + Looney Tunes' 7 hours and 11 minutes?

That's not even half of the potential game content found in Transformed.

So, how many people on the entire planet, are willing to dedicate that much time to a single slightly downgraded port, when there's so many other time sinks available? And how many other Vita games will never be touched in the first place?

And that's a problem the Wii-U shares. Many of its best games can also be described as "a ridiculous time sink that's better played elsewhere."

Oh yeah, and then there's PC. It kind of speaks for itself, and it speaks louder today than it ever has before. At the top of the wishlists of most PC gamers? More spare time to play all of their games.

But, I can't completely dismiss the idea that there might be a collector's market for the Vita and Wii-U, either. At least, there may be one decades in the future?

Both offer unique play experiences that can't be easily emulated on a PC or a mainstream console. Tearaway is a more intimate experience on the Vita, that can't be emulated without a touchscreen in the back of your controller. The Wii U's local multiplayer allows one player to see a screen that the other player can't.

Sure, these features were mostly used for cheap gimmicks, but sometimes they weren't. And why cheat yourself of those moments? Just grab anything that looks amazing to you, while you can, especially if you had to do a bit of research to actually experience it.

And then just wait until everyone has time to regret their life choices, and wishes they'd just bought what you own instead.

And that's as close as you'll ever get to practical advice for successfully gaming the games market, or any other collector's market. (Assuming civilization hasn't completely crashed before you can cash in on your investments.)

jon
Posts: 547
Joined: April 9th, 2015, 4:30 pm

Re: Console Future Values

Postby jon » February 13th, 2020, 9:43 pm

The 3dsxl plan sounds really interesting. I'm planning to drop around $2,000 on consoles and games that should skyrocket in values. I just thought of maybe getting a few Jag CD's. I wonder what the ultimate plan with that kind of money would be at the moment.


Return to “Classic Gaming”