In this thread, we discuss E3. I just realized that E3 is less than a month away. So in this thread, make predictions, discuss the games that are being shown, and post your reactions to the conferences when they're over.
First of all, I'm baffled that Nintendo is deciding yet again to not host a conference and instead do a live stream on Nintendo Direct. I mean, I'm sure they'll show awesome games, but still.
Some of my predictions:
Zelda U will be shown and perhaps playable. I don't think it'll be the same game that they showed at the Nintendo conference previously.
Yarn Yoshi will finally get an official name.
Majora's Mask 3D will be announced.
Maybe a new Mario game for Wii U that won't be a sequel to a previous game.
A Pokemon Snap HD or Pokemon Snap 2 could possibly be announced.
Microsoft will have an impressive E3 that will definitely make up for last year's.
Ubisoft's conference will still show great games and be cringeworthy at the same time.
Sony will put a bit of focus on the indie developers.
The E3 2014 Thread
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nesfan1
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The E3 2014 Thread
All I want for E3 this year is for Nintendo or Atlus to finally give us some information on Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem. And hopefully a release date. That's the only thing that I'm desperately hoping they'll talk about. Other than that, the only other game I want to know more about is Hyrule Warriors.
[QUOTE=LoganRuckman]A Pokemon Snap HD or Pokemon Snap 2 could possibly be announced.[/QUOTE]I was thinking that Pokemon Snap 2 should definitely happen for Wii U. That system's perfect for it what with the tablet and all. They're using the tablet as a camera in Fatal Frame now. Why not Pokemon Snap?
[QUOTE=LoganRuckman]A Pokemon Snap HD or Pokemon Snap 2 could possibly be announced.[/QUOTE]I was thinking that Pokemon Snap 2 should definitely happen for Wii U. That system's perfect for it what with the tablet and all. They're using the tablet as a camera in Fatal Frame now. Why not Pokemon Snap?
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Atarifever1
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The E3 2014 Thread
Okay, so Microsoft really, really wants to make a splash. Phil Spencer has said it is going to be "all about the games.". They already bundled Titanfall. They already dropped Kinect. They already announced $399. They already dropped the Live paywall for Netflix, Hulu, etc. They already showed more Sunset Overdrive. They already showed some Halo 5 stuff. They already announced when the Free with Gold will hit Xbox One.
They still really want to hit at E3 and put all this out BEFORE E3. The above list is, if you think about it, a great E3 show. If they already gave that much up in advance, I predict big, big things for them at E3. They must have all aces left or they wouldn't have tossed out all those other great cards.
They still really want to hit at E3 and put all this out BEFORE E3. The above list is, if you think about it, a great E3 show. If they already gave that much up in advance, I predict big, big things for them at E3. They must have all aces left or they wouldn't have tossed out all those other great cards.
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LoganRuckman1
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The E3 2014 Thread
X (the Xenoblade sequel) will probably be renamed.
Perhaps a new Mario RPG, but probably not, considering both Paper Mario: Sticker Star and Mario And Luigi: Dream Team were both released too recently for a new Mario RPG to be announced. I could be wrong. Or, they could announce Super Mario RPG 2 with Square Enix, but that's definitely wishful thinking on my part. I hate to admit it, but it won't happen.
The first real information on Pokemon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire will be revealed. I'm curious to see what they mean by "brand new world" and "brand new adventure," but it will probably just mean that it's going to have 3D graphics. Which is still awesome, since IMO, Gen III is one of the best, if not the best, generation of Pokemon.
Perhaps a new Mario RPG, but probably not, considering both Paper Mario: Sticker Star and Mario And Luigi: Dream Team were both released too recently for a new Mario RPG to be announced. I could be wrong. Or, they could announce Super Mario RPG 2 with Square Enix, but that's definitely wishful thinking on my part. I hate to admit it, but it won't happen.
The first real information on Pokemon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire will be revealed. I'm curious to see what they mean by "brand new world" and "brand new adventure," but it will probably just mean that it's going to have 3D graphics. Which is still awesome, since IMO, Gen III is one of the best, if not the best, generation of Pokemon.
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LoganRuckman1
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The E3 2014 Thread
[QUOTE=Atarifever]Okay, so Microsoft really, really wants to make a splash. Phil Spencer has said it is going to be "all about the games.". They already bundled Titanfall. They already dropped Kinect. They already announced $399. They already dropped the Live paywall for Netflix, Hulu, etc. They already showed more Sunset Overdrive. They already showed some Halo 5 stuff. They already announced when the Free with Gold will hit Xbox One. They still really want to hit at E3 and put all this out BEFORE E3. The above list is, if you think about it, a great E3 show. If they already gave that much up in advance, I predict big, big things for them at E3. They must have all aces left or they wouldn't have tossed out all those other great cards.[/QUOTE]
I agree completely. Microsoft was off to a slow start with all the pre XBone release controversy, but they've really been doing everything they can to prove to people that they've learned from their mistakes and that the Xbox One is indeed worth owning. They're gonna pull out all the stops at E3. I will be shocked if they don't.
The Nintendo fanboy in me is hoping that Nintendo, despite not having an official conference (which still baffles me), will have the best showing at E3. I especially want them to show some killer Wii U titles and get people interested in getting one.
I agree completely. Microsoft was off to a slow start with all the pre XBone release controversy, but they've really been doing everything they can to prove to people that they've learned from their mistakes and that the Xbox One is indeed worth owning. They're gonna pull out all the stops at E3. I will be shocked if they don't.
The Nintendo fanboy in me is hoping that Nintendo, despite not having an official conference (which still baffles me), will have the best showing at E3. I especially want them to show some killer Wii U titles and get people interested in getting one.
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ActRaiser1
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The E3 2014 Thread
Anyone remember the What If comics? Usually, they'd have some outlandish side story that always started with What if...
What if at this year's E3...
Nintendo Announces They Will Go Multiplatform
I've been playing with the numbers quite a bit and in almost all cases Nintendo's revenue can grow 70-80%. Clearly, there will need to be ramp up time and additional costs but long term supporting additional systems will maximize Return on Investment for each property in their catalog.
Microsoft acquires Nintendo
Microsoft has already acquired past Nintendo development shops (RARE). With a sizable bank account and with Nintendo at a 10 year low, now would be a good time to scoop up the family friendly developer. Of course, you can either option 1 or 2 but not both. I'm leaning towards option 1 coming before this one.
Sony Goes All in on VR
Sony goes all in on VR bundling the tech with each new PS4 sold. To help subsidize it you'll be required to buy a Playstation Plus VR subscription (for an additional $99 per year). On the plus side each copy comes with EA's Battlefront for Hoth like action in complete VR.
E3 2014 winner goes to Sony.
What if at this year's E3...
Nintendo Announces They Will Go Multiplatform
I've been playing with the numbers quite a bit and in almost all cases Nintendo's revenue can grow 70-80%. Clearly, there will need to be ramp up time and additional costs but long term supporting additional systems will maximize Return on Investment for each property in their catalog.
Microsoft acquires Nintendo
Microsoft has already acquired past Nintendo development shops (RARE). With a sizable bank account and with Nintendo at a 10 year low, now would be a good time to scoop up the family friendly developer. Of course, you can either option 1 or 2 but not both. I'm leaning towards option 1 coming before this one.
Sony Goes All in on VR
Sony goes all in on VR bundling the tech with each new PS4 sold. To help subsidize it you'll be required to buy a Playstation Plus VR subscription (for an additional $99 per year). On the plus side each copy comes with EA's Battlefront for Hoth like action in complete VR.
E3 2014 winner goes to Sony.
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Atarifever1
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The E3 2014 Thread
[QUOTE=ActRaiser]Anyone remember the What If comics? Usually, they'd have some outlandish side story that always started with What if...
What if at this year's E3...
Nintendo Announces They Will Go Multiplatform
I've been playing with the numbers quite a bit and in almost all cases Nintendo's revenue can grow 70-80%. Clearly, there will need to be ramp up time and additional costs but long term supporting additional systems will maximize Return on Investment for each property in their catalog.
[/QUOTE]
No way can they make more money doing this. How many, say, Zelda and Mario fans don't have a Wii? 3DS? What Xbox or Playstation owner who truly wants those games doesn't end up with those systems? Fans of Nintendo franchises buy Nintendo systems. Fans of family friendly content buy Nintendo systems. If they are selling poorly it is because other avenues are selling to their traditional demographic, or because their handheld market has finally eaten their console one. In either case, putting Animal Crossing on Xbox One does not sell any more copies of Animal Crossing. It might sell more Xbox Ones to Animal Crossing fans, but certainly not more copies of the game to Xbox fans.
If they ever go anything it should be to do a Nintendo version of Steam. All their old content that will run on anything, sold cheaply. All their higher end stuff sold to work on modest hardware, which is a strength of theirs. Anything way, way over the top they want to do sold to hardware geeks. Other people's content sold on their "platform" because people on PC want to be sold everywhere possible, and don't care about "competing with Nintendo" on their "system." No indie complains Half Life 2 is taking from their sales for example. They just make better games to compete. Nintendo would be incredibly well served to go there in lieu of to other consoles if they ever truly wanted out of hardware.
What if at this year's E3...
Nintendo Announces They Will Go Multiplatform
I've been playing with the numbers quite a bit and in almost all cases Nintendo's revenue can grow 70-80%. Clearly, there will need to be ramp up time and additional costs but long term supporting additional systems will maximize Return on Investment for each property in their catalog.
[/QUOTE]
No way can they make more money doing this. How many, say, Zelda and Mario fans don't have a Wii? 3DS? What Xbox or Playstation owner who truly wants those games doesn't end up with those systems? Fans of Nintendo franchises buy Nintendo systems. Fans of family friendly content buy Nintendo systems. If they are selling poorly it is because other avenues are selling to their traditional demographic, or because their handheld market has finally eaten their console one. In either case, putting Animal Crossing on Xbox One does not sell any more copies of Animal Crossing. It might sell more Xbox Ones to Animal Crossing fans, but certainly not more copies of the game to Xbox fans.
If they ever go anything it should be to do a Nintendo version of Steam. All their old content that will run on anything, sold cheaply. All their higher end stuff sold to work on modest hardware, which is a strength of theirs. Anything way, way over the top they want to do sold to hardware geeks. Other people's content sold on their "platform" because people on PC want to be sold everywhere possible, and don't care about "competing with Nintendo" on their "system." No indie complains Half Life 2 is taking from their sales for example. They just make better games to compete. Nintendo would be incredibly well served to go there in lieu of to other consoles if they ever truly wanted out of hardware.
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ActRaiser1
- Posts: 2726
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The E3 2014 Thread
[QUOTE=Atarifever]
No way can they make more money doing this. How many, say, Zelda and Mario fans don't have a Wii? 3DS? What Xbox or Playstation owner who truly wants those games doesn't end up with those systems? Fans of Nintendo franchises buy Nintendo systems. Fans of family friendly content buy Nintendo systems. If they are selling poorly it is because other avenues are selling to their traditional demographic, or because their handheld market has finally eaten their console one. In either case, putting Animal Crossing on Xbox One does not sell any more copies of Animal Crossing. It might sell more Xbox Ones to Animal Crossing fans, but certainly not more copies of the game to Xbox fans.
If they ever go anything it should be to do a Nintendo version of Steam. All their old content that will run on anything, sold cheaply. All their higher end stuff sold to work on modest hardware, which is a strength of theirs. Anything way, way over the top they want to do sold to hardware geeks. Other people's content sold on their "platform" because people on PC want to be sold everywhere possible, and don't care about "competing with Nintendo" on their "system." No indie complains Half Life 2 is taking from their sales for example. They just make better games to compete. Nintendo would be incredibly well served to go there in lieu of to other consoles if they ever truly wanted out of hardware.
[/QUOTE]
I'm talking home consoles, assuming Nintendo keeps the 3DS as is (or expands, whatever).
Nah, this is factoring in a 30% take rate versus a 70% take rate. The greater your install base, the greater the revenue. It's no different why publishers that put out crap games go for the console with the largest install base. Even if you sell fewer units overall, based on the larger install base you'll make more money.
Here's how I determined the revenue impact.
Nintendo as a console maker receives $48 out of the $60. A straight up Publisher/Developer only makes $36.
This still assumes Nintendo sells into the Wii U. Offering games on the PS4/ Xbox One is pure gravy. In my spreadsheet I can play with all the numbers and take rates. Regardless, revenue increases. NOTE: This doesn't take into account costs rising as well. I disagree that someone that owns an Xbox One wouldn't buy Animal Crossing. Due to the integration with the TV, I think there's a greater chance for oddball purchases outside of the primary "user". Not everyone in the family plays the same types of games. Likewise, not every family has enough disposable income to support multiple consoles. Clearly, families are more taken with Sony and Microsoft. However, offering family friendly gaming options are sellers. Look at Kinect. It gets used based on the concept of friends and family "doing" stuff together.
One thing you touched on and is somewhat similar is that I agree a subscription service to Nintendo's back catalog of games would be awesome! $10 unlimited Virtual Console and now we're talking.
No way can they make more money doing this. How many, say, Zelda and Mario fans don't have a Wii? 3DS? What Xbox or Playstation owner who truly wants those games doesn't end up with those systems? Fans of Nintendo franchises buy Nintendo systems. Fans of family friendly content buy Nintendo systems. If they are selling poorly it is because other avenues are selling to their traditional demographic, or because their handheld market has finally eaten their console one. In either case, putting Animal Crossing on Xbox One does not sell any more copies of Animal Crossing. It might sell more Xbox Ones to Animal Crossing fans, but certainly not more copies of the game to Xbox fans.
If they ever go anything it should be to do a Nintendo version of Steam. All their old content that will run on anything, sold cheaply. All their higher end stuff sold to work on modest hardware, which is a strength of theirs. Anything way, way over the top they want to do sold to hardware geeks. Other people's content sold on their "platform" because people on PC want to be sold everywhere possible, and don't care about "competing with Nintendo" on their "system." No indie complains Half Life 2 is taking from their sales for example. They just make better games to compete. Nintendo would be incredibly well served to go there in lieu of to other consoles if they ever truly wanted out of hardware.
[/QUOTE]
I'm talking home consoles, assuming Nintendo keeps the 3DS as is (or expands, whatever).
Nah, this is factoring in a 30% take rate versus a 70% take rate. The greater your install base, the greater the revenue. It's no different why publishers that put out crap games go for the console with the largest install base. Even if you sell fewer units overall, based on the larger install base you'll make more money.
Here's how I determined the revenue impact.
| Game Price | Take on each game | Goes Into a Game | Cut | Console Owner | Publisher+Dev | Dev Only |
| $60 | 15% | Developer | $9 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| $60 | 30% | Publisher | $18 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| $60 | 20% | Console | $12 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| $60 | 20% | Retail | $12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| $60 | 15% | Marketing | $9 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Nintendo as a console maker receives $48 out of the $60. A straight up Publisher/Developer only makes $36.
| Console | Wii U | Xbox One | PS 4 | Combined |
| Install Base | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 7,000,000 | 17,000,000 |
| Likelihood of buying the game | 70% | 30% | 30% | |
| Games Sold | 3,500,000 | 1,500,000 | 2,100,000 | 7,100,000 |
| Cut | Gross Revenue | |
| Nintendo Published Game | $48 | $168,000,000 |
| Multiplatform | $36 | $129,600,000 |
| Percent of revenue growth by going multiplatform | 77% |
This still assumes Nintendo sells into the Wii U. Offering games on the PS4/ Xbox One is pure gravy. In my spreadsheet I can play with all the numbers and take rates. Regardless, revenue increases. NOTE: This doesn't take into account costs rising as well. I disagree that someone that owns an Xbox One wouldn't buy Animal Crossing. Due to the integration with the TV, I think there's a greater chance for oddball purchases outside of the primary "user". Not everyone in the family plays the same types of games. Likewise, not every family has enough disposable income to support multiple consoles. Clearly, families are more taken with Sony and Microsoft. However, offering family friendly gaming options are sellers. Look at Kinect. It gets used based on the concept of friends and family "doing" stuff together.
One thing you touched on and is somewhat similar is that I agree a subscription service to Nintendo's back catalog of games would be awesome! $10 unlimited Virtual Console and now we're talking.
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Segatarious1
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The E3 2014 Thread
It makes no sense for Nintendo to go multiplatform because they do not make generic games - they build games for the system they are exclusive too. They do not make game slike Assains Creed 6, every Mario is built upon a concept, not a reuse of assets perpetually. Are we going to have Nintendo game son Steam then as well? Lol.
It will not happen. They just spent mega bucks building new software building to house new dev teams, and are moving into them. They are going to share assets for games between their portables and home consoles going forward. The are not going to throw in the towel so causally, it makes no sens to do so. They have retooled, they can retool software prices at any time they choose.
I would not be surprised to see new hardware or a new product at E3, but no reason at all to go third party.
MS is more likely to quit gaming than Nintendo is to go third party. Nintendo has no internal instability, MS is like the washing machine on spin cycle right now.
And Sony has big financial troubles, Nintendo is in better shape then them as well.
The battle has not gone well at all for Wii U, but the war is far from over. And neither Sony or MS is doing well in spite of Nintendo troubles. Take away the Android patent income MS puts in with Xbox division financial results, (which is almost pure profit) and Xbone is a money sink for MS as well. Look at the bath they took with Kinect 2.0, I would not put much faith in MS right now...they could invest their money in areas other than 'hardcore console gaming' in a heartbeat.
It will not happen. They just spent mega bucks building new software building to house new dev teams, and are moving into them. They are going to share assets for games between their portables and home consoles going forward. The are not going to throw in the towel so causally, it makes no sens to do so. They have retooled, they can retool software prices at any time they choose.
I would not be surprised to see new hardware or a new product at E3, but no reason at all to go third party.
MS is more likely to quit gaming than Nintendo is to go third party. Nintendo has no internal instability, MS is like the washing machine on spin cycle right now.
And Sony has big financial troubles, Nintendo is in better shape then them as well.
The battle has not gone well at all for Wii U, but the war is far from over. And neither Sony or MS is doing well in spite of Nintendo troubles. Take away the Android patent income MS puts in with Xbox division financial results, (which is almost pure profit) and Xbone is a money sink for MS as well. Look at the bath they took with Kinect 2.0, I would not put much faith in MS right now...they could invest their money in areas other than 'hardcore console gaming' in a heartbeat.
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scotland171
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The E3 2014 Thread
Actraiser, thanks for the numbers. They are simple and compelling. This is only for Nintendo first party games, and that is why you have marketing as you do. The difference, less marketing, is really the 20% for console owner, which belies the risks and costs of being in the hardware biz (ask Sega). Seems like it could also be negotiated. For instance, if Nintendo auctioned off developing one of their non Mario IPs to Sony or MS, they would get a good deal.
Not saying this will happen. For 30 years Nintendo has made software to sell hardware, so I do not see them changing playbooks to just software. At least not unless the financials are more dire than we know. Just saying things can be negotiated.
Your numbers also illustrate why MS, Sony and Microsoft wants to reduce the percentage going to retail with digital downloads and eshops and other non physical product. Same retail price, less risk (never an ET dump of over produced digital downloads), more profit.
Not saying this will happen. For 30 years Nintendo has made software to sell hardware, so I do not see them changing playbooks to just software. At least not unless the financials are more dire than we know. Just saying things can be negotiated.
Your numbers also illustrate why MS, Sony and Microsoft wants to reduce the percentage going to retail with digital downloads and eshops and other non physical product. Same retail price, less risk (never an ET dump of over produced digital downloads), more profit.
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