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Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 9:37 am
by Alienblue
Okay, THIS should spark some debate.

I've been thinking how, for a long time now, the market has been saturated with similiar games....too many FPS's, racers, 3-D platform fighters, etc....

So, next gen systems are out, but-from what I understand- only the Wii is selling like hotcakes (and remember, when Colecovision came out THAT sold like hotcakes for awhile too!)...

This whole situation reminds me of the CRASH, guys. Too many games. Next gen systems (Atari 5200/Colecovision) with better graphics/sound but the SAME KIND of games as previous systems. People became bored. The market crashed, all the curent video game systems died slowly.... and it took a revolutionary new system and game- NES and Super Mario Bros. - to bring it back around.

So, the way I see it one of three things could happen- The market will crash again (although I think thats doubtfull; vidgames are too firmly entenched) - NOTHING will happen and we'll keep playing FPS games forever -or, the most likely scenario to me, the market will SLUMP a bit-one of the 3 nextgen consoles will die, leaving only 2...and the slump will continue untill some NEW kind of game genre that excites and reinvigorates the market is introduced. Just my outlook.

Okay- Comments, ideas, -Attacks?

Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 1:04 pm
by BanjoPickles1

Though I see where you're going with this, Alien, I have to disagree with you a bit. Though I agree that the same kind of games are being made, over and over, the modern technology allows for new upgrades/storylines/innovations/etc. that just were not possible back in the day. A sequel to Pitfall in 1984 promised the same core gameplay, while a sequel to Halo or Smash Bros. promises the same core gameplay, beefed-up, expanded, polished, etc. Also, give it time, we are only a few months in. The 360 is selling very well for not having the Japanese market and the PS3 has sold respectable numbers, given the price. I think the 3 system debate will be a lot more involved, given a year's time. Will the Wii fail to garner 3rd party support and peeter out like the Dreamcast which also initially sold very well? Will the ps3 cost Sony their long-dormant stranglehold? Will the whole thing come crashing down? I doubt it because, unlike yesterday, the video game industry is a multi-BILLION dollar industry with enough high-profile games, developers, back-history, and options to sustain it. I promise you, there will not be a crash any time soon. However, if you start seeing 360, Wii, or PS3 games based around tubes of toothpaste or kool-aid....be afraid!


Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 1:13 pm
by a1

Well, the PS3, 360, and Wii aren't going anywhere. The 360 is already established, the Wii has been a runaway success, and the PS3, no matter how much of a failure it is in some people's eyes, will do well enough to stick around. I'm sure FPS won't stay as the leading genre though.


Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 1:26 pm
by bluemonkey1
The 360 has sold in excess of Microsoft's predictions, which many thought were a bit unrealistic.  The sales figures for titles like Oblivion and Gears of War are crazy.  Lost Planet shipped 1 million copies within a month.  FPS has been on a high for 10 years now.  People didn't complain after 10 years of 2D platformers that games were too samey.

The only way one of the three next gen systems (I use the term losely for the Wii as a new controller is hardly next gen) will die is if Sony goes out of business.  MS will never drop support for the XBox line and the division is even set to make a profit in 2008!  The Wii has sold as fast as they can make them, sure the novelty factor might wear off but Nintendo has always survived off that relationship they formed with a subset of gamers in their youth (you know the ones who buy each Nintendo system and tons of 1st party games but never pay attention to anything no-Nintendo).  The PlayStation brand is the one part of Sony that is doing well.  And to be honest they have such a brand following they will never die.

Digital distribution has finally made it possible for small development houses to release stuff on consoles for the first time in decades.

I feel like the next gen has revitalised the gaming industry. It has certainly revitalised gaming for me.  Whether it's a completely new prospect that never could have been achieved on the old systems like Dead Rising (finally some variety to the zombie genre). Or emotional experiences on new levels - Condemned and Oblivion (I like wandering the countryside and just taking in the atmosphere).  Achievements have made games far more enjoyable for me because I actually have something to show for the time I spend on the hobby.  Yes last gen was a bit tired at the end but the games this gen are so exciting.  I can't wait to play: Alan Wake, Army of Two, Kane and Lynch, Mass Effect, Assassin's Creed, Command and Conquer 3, Stranglehold, Bioshock, Virtua Fighter 5, Lost Odyssey and Left 4 Dead.  And that's just a few of the games coming out this year I want to get.


Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 3:42 pm
by VideoGameCritic
I think if things had continued to move down the Microsoft/Sony rout (slight increments in graphics, same games), a crash might have occurred.  However, Nintendo has really reinvigorated the industry with its Wii (and also the DS), so I don't think it will happen.

I definitely see a glut of cheap games out there (much like the crash of 83), but the difference is, most of these games are really GOOD.


Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 4:28 pm
by bluemonkey1

[QUOTE=VGC](slight increments in graphics, same games)
[/QUOTE]

Are you serious here?  That's a pretty distorted view.


Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 5:06 pm
by Atarifever1
[QUOTE=BanjoPickles]

Though I see where you're going with this, Alien, I have to disagree with you a bit. Though I agree that the same kind of games are being made, over and over, the modern technology allows for new upgrades/storylines/innovations/etc. that just were not possible back in the day. A sequel to Pitfall in 1984 promised the same core gameplay, while a sequel to Halo or Smash Bros. promises the same core gameplay, beefed-up, expanded, polished, etc.

[/QUOTE]
What?  Pitfall 2 is probably the most expanded sequel of all time.

Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 5:29 pm
by VideoGameCritic
[QUOTE=bluemonkey]

[QUOTE=VGC](slight increments in graphics, same games)
[/QUOTE]

Are you serious here?  That's a pretty distorted view.

[/QUOTE]

Is it really distorted?  The games I'm playing on my PS3 and 360 are pretty much the same games I've been playing for 10 years - first person shooters, sports games, racing games.  Hell, I bought a copy of Ridge Racer with all three of my Playstation systems, and they all play pretty much the same.  Don't get me wrong - I think they're all terrific.  But not everybody is willing to shell out $60 for a new FPS that - at its core - plays like Golden Eye for the Nintendo 64.  My next two games for the PS3 will probably be Virtual Fighter 5 and NBA Homecourt - same idea.

But it wasn't until the DS and Wii that we've started to see"different" titles like Trauma Center, Brain Age, Wii Sports, Wii Play, Kiry Canvas Curse, and Smooth Moves.  These are the games that are selling Nintendos at a record pace - not Red Steel or Metal Slug Anthology. 


Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 6:57 pm
by chrisbid1
i dont think its distorted at all, its the law of diminishing returns as far as graphics go.

and while i doubt there will ever be a total crash like in the 80s, there is no way the industry can continue to grow at the pace it has been used to growing for the past decade.

Crash/Slump?

Posted: March 7th, 2007, 7:34 pm
by Paul Campbell
[QUOTE=a]

. I'm sure FPS won't stay as the leading genre though.

[/QUOTE]

I'm not so sure.  It is basically the closest mode to reality, so I'd be surprised if it was ditched for something else.  Maybe 3rd person will become the most popular (my preference), but that's somewhat similar.

As far as graphics go, in many cases, I still feel like many games have taken a backward step in graphics.  Namely sports games.  We've talked about this before.  The closer it gets to reality, the more you start to notice the differences, and the stranger those differences make it seem.  There is a scientific name for it, can't remember what it is.  Sure the basketball courts look glossier, but in some games the players look like shiny porcelain dolls in motion.   It turned me off pretty early, so I havn't seen if there have been any exceptions released on the 360 or PS3, but so far, the next gen has weirded me out in basketball games.

I know someone is gonna get all offended that I said that.