Its interesting if you read around the web a bit, how analysts are reacting to the Wii success and predicting the next 5 years. I've read a lot of different people saying the Wii is a fad, it will fade big time, and PS3 and 360 will far surpass it when people see how limited the Wii's graphics are.
My reaction?
That's the same reasons they gave 6 months ago on why the Wii would fail to take off in the first place. The Wii's graphics are already inferior by comparison, why in 2 to 3 years is it suddenly going to hit people like a ton of bricks. Give me a break. No doubt the Wii will eventually slow down, I don't see it getting trampled.
It will be interesting to see how much non-traditional content Nintendo can pump out, if they can keep and build up the 'casuals' and 'used to plays'.
It will be intersting to see if another developer will try to beat them to the punch with a different game idea, instead of playing catch up and copycat.
I wonder if SMG will outsell SPM?
Conventional Wisdom
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feilong801
- Posts: 2173
- Joined: December 31st, 1969, 7:00 pm
Conventional Wisdom
One thing's for sure: if conventional wisdom was always correct, the world would sure be a boring place! "Conventional" wisdom would have told Nintendo to not even bother with the original NES!
Brilliant innovators have the ability to see hidden opportunities in the market. In my experience, people generally think in a linear fashion, A going directly to B.
The linear thinking in the game industry has always been graphics and processing power.
Nintendo has shown an ability to think laterally instead of the "straight line" thinking employed by the other companies.
Of course, small steps forward, using proven methods and proven markets is a much safer route. It was smart of Microsoft to build a console that was a simple extension of the current paradigm. I like my Xbox 360, it fit like a glove when I bought it because it simply extended upon what I was used too from previous consoles. Trying new ideas inevitably leads to many failures along the way. However, sometimes it is worth failing ten times if attempt number 11 is a smashing success.
I think what people underestimated with Nintendo was the strength of the brand. They hadn't gone the route of Atari or Sega just yet. People still respected the brand. So, they were given the luxery of trying out some interesting new ideas in the DS and Wii with a built in fanbase that would not only support it, but also promote it to others.
The Xbox has a long way to go before it is a true brand in that sense. Even the Playstation name is more ingrained in the popular culture at this point. But where Sony went wrong was that they overestimated their brand; whereas people will pay more money for a Lexus car or a Rolex watch, the Playstation brand wasn't worth the extra money to the mass market in the same way.
What you are going to see with Wii is industry analysts continuing to predict its eventual demise. You'll see this for a few years, even if the sales continue to be strong, even if the games start really rollin'. They could be right, of course. But I think there is this group think, especially within the industry itself (the fishbowl effect) that determines some of the thinking there.
Remember, there was a time when Sony was a newcomer, and nobody thought much of this "Playstation thing."
-Rob
Brilliant innovators have the ability to see hidden opportunities in the market. In my experience, people generally think in a linear fashion, A going directly to B.
The linear thinking in the game industry has always been graphics and processing power.
Nintendo has shown an ability to think laterally instead of the "straight line" thinking employed by the other companies.
Of course, small steps forward, using proven methods and proven markets is a much safer route. It was smart of Microsoft to build a console that was a simple extension of the current paradigm. I like my Xbox 360, it fit like a glove when I bought it because it simply extended upon what I was used too from previous consoles. Trying new ideas inevitably leads to many failures along the way. However, sometimes it is worth failing ten times if attempt number 11 is a smashing success.
I think what people underestimated with Nintendo was the strength of the brand. They hadn't gone the route of Atari or Sega just yet. People still respected the brand. So, they were given the luxery of trying out some interesting new ideas in the DS and Wii with a built in fanbase that would not only support it, but also promote it to others.
The Xbox has a long way to go before it is a true brand in that sense. Even the Playstation name is more ingrained in the popular culture at this point. But where Sony went wrong was that they overestimated their brand; whereas people will pay more money for a Lexus car or a Rolex watch, the Playstation brand wasn't worth the extra money to the mass market in the same way.
What you are going to see with Wii is industry analysts continuing to predict its eventual demise. You'll see this for a few years, even if the sales continue to be strong, even if the games start really rollin'. They could be right, of course. But I think there is this group think, especially within the industry itself (the fishbowl effect) that determines some of the thinking there.
Remember, there was a time when Sony was a newcomer, and nobody thought much of this "Playstation thing."
-Rob
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